I have trawled through the tipster columns, form guides, blogs and podcasts to bring you my best value Back and Lay exchange bets for Thursday’s racing at Royal Ascot.Embed from Getty Images
14.30 Norfolk Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo)
Walbank and Brave Nation are being well-supported from a range of tipsters but the comparative form suggests to me that The Antarctic could be the one to back in the Norfolk. Largely overlooked by some, The Antarctic has beaten a very good horse Wodao twice in as many outings over the 5f trip. Wodao’s 8th out of 24 in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes yesterday is a sound indication of what this 2-year old brother to Battaash can do.
Pillow Talk is on the drift but to oppose it, I would be looking for <9.6. Redemption Time is an interesting outsider worth an e-w flutter perhaps at >36?
Exchange Tips (win only market unless stated): BACK: The Antarctic >5.0; LAY: Pillow Talk <9.6
15.05 Ascot – King George V Stakes (1m 2f, Group 3, 3yo)
Israr is the selection of a good range of tipsters for the King George V Stakes. The John and Thady Gosden trained colt was splendid in the BetVictor London Gold Cup Handicap at Newbury, coming from the rear to win in style ahead of Surrey Mist who he takes on again today. I’ve got my bet on this already at a good price and I suggest backing if the price gets above >8.6 today.
Inverness is a possible e-w bet for those looking for a bigger price but he would need to rekindle some of the form that suggested he might fulfil his potential when winning at Goodwood over 8f in September 2021. He has been lightly raced and made his most recent appearance in April at Epsom in Cazoo Blue Riband Trial where he never threatened the leaders. If you like the look of Inverness to get amongst the top three, look for an e-w price >50.
Newfoundland has done everything that has been asked of him so far but albeit in slightly weaker company. The Moore and O’Brien double-act can never be discounted but this is the one that I have chosen to oppose if the price is right here. Laying Newfoundland at <7.6 might prove difficult but I wouldn’t want to risk any more than that.
Exchange Tips (win only market unless stated) Back: Israr >8.6, Inverness (E-W) >50 Lay: Newfoundland < 7.6
15.40 Ribblesdale Stakes (1m 4f, Group 2, 3yo fillies)
The Ribblesdale is weaker for the absence of Emily Upjohn and it is difficult for me to get excited about this race. Tips are spread around the six-filly-field which suggests some doubt exists about the leaders in the market. Magical Lagoon is drifting this morning and could be worth taking on but I’ve chosen to oppose History at <8.2, despite the potential liabilities.
Due to the implied weakness at the top of the market, I have found value in Mukaddmah. This filly does her best work at the finish, is likely to stay, and is open to further improvement. The mount of Jim Crowley means that she is in good hands. When Crowley and trainer, Roger Varian combine they have a 44% strike rate at Ascot.
Exchange Tips (win only market unless stated) Back: Mukaddamah >7.6 Lay: History <8.2
16.20 Ascot Gold Cup (2m 4f, Group 1, 4yo +)
Bah Humbug! I’m opposing Stradivarius because there’s no room for sentiment in this game so you can put those violin’s away! Trueshan’s withdrawal makes the job a little easier for Frankie’s mount, Stradivarius but there is plenty of quality elsewhere in this race. It’s possible to Lay the old boy (Stradivarius not Dettori) for as little as 3.35 currently. If he does make it a record equalling four wins in the Gold Cup, there won’t be a dry-eye in the ‘house’. My bankroll wants him to lose, my heart wants him to win.
For my back bet in this race, I’ve selected Mojo Star who will almost certainly stay the distance. Tenth of fourteen in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on heavy going last October, this former Derby runner-up should not be overlooked. I’ve backed it each-way and should get a decent run for my money.
Exchange Tips (win only market unless stated) Back: (EW) Mojo Star >16.5 Lay: Stradivarius <3.4